NZD/USD seesaw near four-day high after New Zealand Trade Balance, RBNZ’s Orr

• NZD/USD stays positive with the Kiwi catalysts refraining from any downbeat signals.
• New Zealand (NZ) trade numbers came better than expected, RBNZ’s Orr is yet to provide any clear clues.

NZD/USD trades around the four day high while taking rounds to 0.6430 during early Wednesday morning in Asia.

The pair recently benefited from New Zealand’s bi-annual Financial Stability Report (FSR) and trade numbers. However, the quote is waiting for clues to the Reserve   Bank of New Zealand’s next move.

Speaking about the Financial Stability Report in Wellington, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr said that a few large banks having access to our offshore funding is “something we have to watch”.

Read: RBNZ’s Orr: A few large banks having access to offshore funding is “something we have to watch”

Earlier, New Zealand’s October month Trade Balance defied the MoM forecast of $-1621M and downwardly revised $-1319M prior with $-1013M figure whereas the YoY number crossed $-5.33B (revised) to $-5.04B. Further, Imports grew to $6.05B from $5.68B (revised) whereas Exports grew from $4.36B (revised) prior to $5.03B.

The Kiwi pair recently benefited from the upbeat comments of the central bank’s FSR and surged to the four-day high. However, the broad strength of the US dollar (USD), mainly because of the upbeat data and positive sentiment surrounding the US-China trade deal, managed to cap the gains.

While a few of the data/events are left for publishing in the Asian session for now, traders will wait for the US catalysts which are in numbers to determine near-term pair moves. Among them, the US Gross Domestic Product and Durable Goods Orders will be the key to watch. In this regard, Westpac says, “the US data calendar is crowded with releases squeezed in ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday Thursday and partial holiday for Black Friday. The second estimate of Q3 GDP is seen holding at a 1.9% annualized growth pace. The Atlanta Fed’s current Q4 GDP estimate is a weak 0.42% annualized pace, the NY Fed’s is 0.71%. We will also see Oct durable goods orders, where non-defense & aircraft orders are seen extending Sep’s decline.”

Technical Analysis

Even after breaking 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the kiwi pair needs to cross the monthly top surrounding 0.6470 in order to aim for 0.6500 round-figure. If prices fail to hold the recent upside momentum, chances are high that a two-week-old trend line, at 0.6400 and 21-day EMA level of 0.6390 will return to the charts.