Search ForexCrunch
  • NZD/USD keeps the pullback from two-week high while taking rounds to 0.6490/95.
  • Market’s risk-on mood seems to have paused amid recent trade-negative news.
  • Upbeat global PMIs, no damage to the phase one deal and hopes of the US stimulus pleased the bulls on Tuesday.
  • All eyes on RBNZ but trade/virus updates can also contribute to market moves.

NZD/USD trades mildly positive around 0.6495 during the initial Asian session on Wednesday. Even so, the kiwi pair holds the consolidation move from the highest levels since June 11 ahead of the key monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Other than the wait for the crucial event, fresh challenges to the US-China phase-one deal and a trade-negative action by America seems to have paused the pair buyers.

Despite the tiring efforts of the US diplomats, including President Donald Trump, to defy White House Adviser Peter Navarro’s take on the Sino-American trade deal, China’s Global Times isn’t convinced. The state-backed media also cite the US policymakers ire towards Huawei to cite the fears of further hardships in the US-China relations. Elsewhere, the US Department of State opened anti-dumping investigations of imports of vehicle tires from South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam, as per Reuters.

Other than the trade news, a surge in the hospitalization rate of Texas and Los Angeles also probe the market’s earlier risk-on mood.

On Tuesday, welcome prints of global activity numbers and hopes of the US $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan joined hands with easing of lockdown restrictions on the UK to please the risk-takers. Additionally, expectations that the US and China are still talking about trade, after initial doubts, added to the optimism.

While Wall Street closing and the US 10-year treasury yields previously portrayed the market’s risk-on sentiment, S&P 500 Futures seem to wait for fresh clues to extend the upbeat mood around 3,115.

At 02:00 AM GMT, the RBNZ will announce its monetary policy decision that becomes the key for NZD/USD traders, for now. New Zealand’s central bank is widely anticipated to not alter the present monetary policy and the benchmark rate. However, the strength of the Trade Weighted Index (TWI) pushes the market players to anticipate something from the decision-makers opens the issue.

“No change in the Official Cash Rate is expected, but the release will be closely perused for any signals as to future rate changes or expansion of the QE program. Some expect a lift in the large scale asset program (LSAP) today; we think it makes sense to wait until August. The challenge for the RBNZ will be to acknowledge the speed we have moved through the COVID-19 levels, but not to sound too positive, as this could push the NZD higher and steeper yield curves,” said analysts at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ).

Read: RBNZ Preview: Five major banks expectations

Technical analysis

21-day SMA and an ascending trend line from May 18 offers the key short-term support around 0.6420/15. Though, Tuesday’s spinning top candlestick formation suggests that the buyers are waiting for a clear break above 0.6500 to challenge the monthly high of 0.6585.