NZD/USD technical analysis: Bid for third straight day, teasing falling trendline breakout

• NZD/USD is extending the two-day winning streak on expectations for a rate cut at Fed’s Oct. 30 meeting.  
• A bullish close above key trendline may remain elusive if the US Nonfarm Payrolls beat estimates.  

NZD/USD is flashing green for the third straight day amid the US recession fears and increasing investor expectations for an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve (Fed’s) Oct. 29-30 meeting.

The currency pair is currently trading at 0.6320, representing 0.20% gains on the day, having rallied by 0..39% and 0.50% on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.  

As of now, more than 90% of traders are pricing in the chance of a third, 25-basis point rate cut at the Fed’s Oct. 30 meeting, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. The probability stood at 40% on Monday.  

The dovish expectations have been bolstered by the dismal manufacturing and private sector jobs data released earlier this week.  

The rate cut expectations may rise further in a USD-negative manner if the US Nonfarm Payrolls data, due at 12:30 GMT, prints below estimates. In that case, the NZD/USD pair will likely challenge 0.64.  

At press time, the pair is teasing a break above the trendline connecting July 22 and Sept. 12 highs. The trendline hurdle will likely remain intact if the US payrolls and wage growth numbers blow past expectations, forcing markets to price out the expectations for a Fed rate cut.  

Daily chart

Trend: Bullish

Technical levels