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The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6740, having hit a session high of 0.6746 soon before press time.  

The RBNZ is widely expected to keep rates unchanged today and join the dovish chorus of other central banks.  The markets have likely priced in the dovish turn, the recent slide in yield differentials indicates.  

The spread between the New Zealand 10-year government bond yield and its US counterpart fell to -0.592 basis points earlier today, the lowest level since Nov. 5. Notably, the spread -0.22 basis points on Jan. 4 and was seen at -0.356 on Jan. 30.  

The NZD, therefore, could pick up a bid if the RBNZ matches market expectations. Validating that bullish case is the positive divergence of the relative strength index (RSI) seen in the chart below.  

4-hour chart

The bullish divergence would be invalidated if RBNZ sounds more dovish than expected, sending the pair below 0.6720.  

Trend:  neutral


       Today Last Price:  0.6740
       Today Daily change: 3 pips
       Today Daily change %:  0.01%
       Today Daily Open:  0.6739
       Daily SMA20:  0.6805
       Daily SMA50:  0.6791
       Daily SMA100:  0.6726
       Daily SMA200:  0.6755
       Previous Daily High:  0.6745
       Previous Daily Low:  0.6719
       Previous Weekly High:  0.6907
       Previous Weekly Low:  0.6729
       Previous Monthly High:  0.694
       Previous Monthly Low:  0.6516
       Daily Fibonacci 38.2%:  0.6735
       Daily Fibonacci 61.8%:  0.6729
       Daily Pivot Point S1:  0.6724
       Daily Pivot Point S2:  0.6708
       Daily Pivot Point S3:  0.6698
       Daily Pivot Point R1:  0.675
       Daily Pivot Point R2:  0.676
       Daily Pivot Point R3:  0.6776