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  • The NZD/USD pair is challenging a rising trendline connecting the Sept. 12 low and Sept. 16 low. Acceptance below that level would mean the corrective rally from the Sept. 11 low of 0.65 has ended.
  • That would also add credence to pair’s repeated failure to hold above the descending (bearish) 50-day moving average (MA) and could yield a drop to 0.6623 (38.2% Fib R of 0.65-0.6699).
  • The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points (bps) yesterday and successfully signaled further tightening without sparking risk aversion. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept rates unchanged and remained firmly in neutral territory. The growing divergence between the Fed and RBNZ indicates scope for a downside break of the trendline support.

Hourly Chart

Spot Rate: 0.6649

Daily High: 0.6680

Daily Low: 0.6646

Trend: Bearish below trendline

Resistance

R1: 0.6662 (50-day moving average)

R2: 0.6680 (session high)

R3: 0.6699 (Sept. 21 high)

Support

S1: 0.6645 (trendline support)

S2: 0.6630 (Sept. 24 support on the hourly chart)

S3: 0.66 (psychological level)