NZD/USD: The Kiwi remains expensive against the dollar  – Deutsche Bank

Analysts at Deutsche Bank, forecast NZD/USD at 0.69 by mid-2019 and around 0.66 by the end of the year. They point out the Kiwi is the most expensive G10 currency.  

Key Quotes:  

“NZD has defied the bears (including ourselves since mid-2018) for some time, and with a lack of obvious negative catalysts we’ve lifted our previously downbeat forecasts. Almost every data release tells the same story – slower growth than in the exceptional 2014-2017 period, but still a healthy pace. And a few developments in recent months have been positive: dairy prices are up 20% from the 2018 slump; the RBNZ hasn’t followed the dovish tilt of peers; the slowdown in migration is showing tentative signs of slowing. On top of that, inflation is basically at target (1.9%, vs mid-point of target range of 2%) – there aren’t many countries that can say that.  But the RBNZ could still tilt dovish – AUD/NZD around current levels may concern them a little. And there’s still no wage growth uplift to speak of, unlike in other Anglo countries.”

“Most importantly for our longterm forecasts, NZD just looks too high. It’s the most expensive in G10 across a broad range of metrics (PPP, DBeer etc). And it looks expensive vs a range of simple charts – against rate differentials, commodities and consumer sentiment for example.”