NZD/USD: trading in key zone, below recent highs but holding previous support

• NZD/USD dragged lower by the Aussie and CAD.
• Support is located at 0.6720 and resistance remains located at 0.6860.

NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6784 with a low of 0.6776 from a high at 0.6824, stabilising the supply from the correction in the dollar’s sell-off from the 95 handle in the DXY down to 94.20.

The high betas were trading heavily on the back-foot as the recent sell-off in the greenback ran out of legs. Commodities on a whole were lower with the  CRB consolidating the bear break of the 200 DMA. The sector is vulnerable as the central bank’s divergence theme comes back into play with the odds for the Federal Reserve to hike 4 times by the end of 2018 touching a fresh cycle high at more than 6-in-10. The Aussie and Canadian dollar were leading the declines in the Commodity-FX space and the Kiwi followed suit in the absence of anything new fundamentally that can keep the bird on a northerly trajectory.  

A mild upward bias for kiwi in the near term – ANZ

Analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited, (ANZ), explained that the kiwi drifted lower overnight, largely on a stronger USD, although there didn’t appear to be much conviction to the moves, even with US yields pushing sharply higher: “We have a mild upward bias for kiwi in the near term, but it is largely at the whims of global forces,” the analysts added.

NZD/USD levels

Support is located at 0.6720 and resistance remains located at 0.6860. Bullishly, the price has held the 0.6760 level and is above the 100/21-hourly  SMAs – this is where it was previously resisted by the 21-hr SMA when the price then managed to get above the 10-hr SMA and took RSI into overbought conditions. 0.6820 caps and there could be some consolidation down here before the next leg one way or the other. However, on a break of 0.6920,  the bulls will be well back in control and could target the June highs. The 200-month moving average resistance at 0.7007 is next key level.