NZD/USD: Under pressure around 0.6300 amid recently downbeat trade headlines

  • NZD/USD remains on the back foot as trade war fears renew.
  • US diplomats, Chinese media seem to lose optimism surrounding the trade deal.
  • NZ Credit Card Spending becomes an immediate catalyst amid a light economic calendar.

With the US-China trade headlines parting ways from the recently upbeat tone, NZD/USD carries its weakness forward while trading around 0.6700 at the start of Friday’s Asian session.

The Kiwi pair failed to justify better than forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Thursday as not only the US policymakers but Chinese media have also started challenging hopes of any breakthrough from the October month trade negotiations. Among them, comments from the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow and from the US President Donald Trump’s adviser on China Michael Pillsbury sound alarming while Hu Xijin, the Chief in Editor at the Global Times, a Chinese media, didn’t refrain from flaunting the dragon nation’s not anxious stand to reach the trade deal with the US.

It should also be noted that welcome prints of the US housing and manufacturing data could also be considered as additional catalysts that dragged the NZD/USD pair downwards.

Looking forward, investors are likely to witness a lack of major drivers during the week’s last day as New Zealand’s August month Credit Card Spending YoY, expected 5.7% versus 5.0% prior, becomes the only data to watch on the economic calendar. As a result, trade/political headlines will be the key to direct pair’s near-term sentiment.

Technical Analysis

Prices are gradually declining towards early-month low near 0.6270 with the start of a bearish signal from 12-bar moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator signaling further weakness in the direction to a downward-sloping trend-line connecting May 2017 lows and October 2018 bottom, around 0.6170. On the contrary, 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level around 0.6365 acts as an immediate upside barrier, a break of which can trigger fresh advances targeting 0.6400.

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