The New Zealand dollar had a choppy week. The release of quarterly retail sales is expected to dominate the week. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD. More positive data came out of New Zealand during the week. The Business NZ Manufacturing Index remained at a strong 56.2 points, reflecting strong growth and showing that the manufacturing sector is also doing well. In the US, the 6 hour long testimony of Janet Yellen conveyed a message of continuity, and did little to move the kiwi. [do action=”autoupdate” tag=”NZDUSDUpdate”/]NZD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: REINZ HPI: Exact timing unavailable at the time of writing. The House Price Index by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand showed a surprising drop of 1% in December house prices, after 5 consecutive months of rises. The picture probably turned positive in January. Retail Sales: Sunday, 21:45. Like quite a few other figures, New Zealand publishes changes in the volume of retail sales only once per quarter, enhancing the magnitude of the publication. After a rise of 0.3% in Q3, a bigger rise is expected for Q4, especially as job figures and other indicators have been very promising. Core sales fell by 0.1% in Q3, and are now expected to turn positive as well. PPI: Wednesday, 21:45. Producer prices have risen by 2.2% at the Input level and at 2.4% at the Output level in Q3. A similar rise of the Producer Price Index is expected now in both measures. While the economy is steaming hot, the global slowdown in price rises will have probably reached New Zealand as well. NZD/USD Technical Analysis Early in the week, Kiwi/dollar was capped by the 0.8290 line (mentioned last week). It then made a move higher, reaching a peak of 0.8368 before retreating. Technical lines, from top to bottom: We start from higher ground this time. The October peak of 0.8544 is the highest level in the background. 0.8435 was the peak in September and was retested in January. It is a strong double top. The round number of 0.84 is another line of resistance after capping the pair in September and in November. 0.8335 capped a move higher in December and also had a role in the past. The pair fell short of this line in January 2014. Below, 0.8290 capped the pair several times during December and also served as a clear separator in February. 0.82, worked as support several times: in September, October and also in December. It is somewhat weaker now. Close by, 0.8150 capped the pair in August and worked as support in March. Lower, 0.8135 provided support for the pair in January 2014. 0.8060 provided support to the pair in January 2014 and is the level to watch. The round number of 0.80 doesn’t have a technical significance, but is certainly psychologically important. Below 0.80, we find another round number: 0.79. This level was a pivotal line several times in the past. The last line for now is 0.7850, that worked as cushion back in September, before the big rally. I remain bullish on NZD/USD The kiwi still enjoys the back wind of the superb labor market gains. With a rate hike now an almost certainty for the March meeting, there is still room for gains, as long as the global mood doesn’t sour. Further reading: For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook. For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast. For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast. For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast. For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast. For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast. Yohay Elam Yohay Elam Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts. Yohay's Google Profile View All Post By Yohay Elam MinorsNZD/USD Forecast share Read Next AUD/USD Forecast Feb. 17-21 Kenny Fisher 8 years The New Zealand dollar had a choppy week. The release of quarterly retail sales is expected to dominate the week. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD. More positive data came out of New Zealand during the week. The Business NZ Manufacturing Index remained at a strong 56.2 points, reflecting strong growth and showing that the manufacturing sector is also doing well. In the US, the 6 hour long testimony of Janet Yellen conveyed a message of continuity, and did little to move the kiwi. 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