NZD/USD Outlook – Feb 28 – March 4 2011

NBNZ Business Confidence is the main event this week overshadowed by the devastation of last week’s major earthquake. Here’s an outlook for the events in New  Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for MZD/USD.

Last week’s major earthquake hit the central business district of Christchurch with an estimated damage of at least $12 billion. New Zealand’s Prime Minister John Key said that the economic impact of this earthquake will be worse than the one in September. The New Zealand government has a standing disaster fund, aimed to cover homes for up to $NZ100,000 in damage, but it does not cover businesses therefore, the cost of repairing public infrastructure will fall to the government. This disaster may push the New Zealand government further into debt

NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Trade Balance: Sunday 21:45. New Zealand’s trade balance unexpectedly widened its deficit in December to 250.00 million from 186.00 million in the preceding month. Exports rose in by 3.80% from the previous 3.84% and the expected 3.80%, while the imports rose by 4.05% from the previous 3.84% and the expected 3.75%. Trade balance deficit is expected to narrow to 25.00 million.

1. NBNZ Business Confidence: Monday, 2:00. New Zealand businesses were less positive in December, the first decline in three months, as 29.5% of respondents expecting the economy to improve over the next 12 months, compared with a net 33.2% a month earlier. The bank said economic recovery is slow. A similar figure is expected now.
2. Overseas Trade Index: Monday 21:45. Overseas Trade Index or Terms of Trade Index measuring change in the price of internationally traded goods and services climbed 3.0% much better than 1.7% gain forecasted and better than 2.0% rise in the previous month. A rise of 3.2% is predicted now.
3. ANZ Commodity Prices: Tuesday, 14:00. Commodity prices surged nearly 4% in January following 2.0% in the previous month mainly due to a sharp increase in the prices of milk powder, Wool and Beef. A smaller rise is expected now.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD Technical  Analysis

The New Zealand dollar drifted under 0.7655 (a new line, that didn’t appear last week), before dropping sharply on news of the earthquake all the way to 0.7427, before making a small recovery and bouncing at the 0.7523 line to close at 0.7513.

Looking up, important and very close resistance is at 0.7523, which capped a recovery attempt just now. It also was a peak a long time ago and later served as support. The next line is 0.7655, which was a stubborn line just now and also in October.

Higher, 0.7750 is is a tough cap above – that worked in February as resistance and as support in November. It’s followed by 0.7830, which was a peak in November and is stronger resistance.

Further above, the peak of 0.7975 was the 2010 high and serves as strong resistance, just under the round number of 0.80.  Even higher, 0.81 was an important resistance level back in 2008, and it’s followed by the all-time high of 0.8214.

Looking down, we find  0.74 – it prevented further falls a few months ago and just now after the quake.  When  the 0.74 line was indeed  broken, the pair found support close by, at 0.7350 – which is now of high  importance  as well.

Lower,  0.7210 was a stepping stone for the kiwi on the way up and now provides support.  It’s followed by, 0.7140 was a resistance line back in July and also in August, and now works as support. The last line for now is 0.6950, which was the lowest line in 6 months.

I am bearish on NZD/USD.

The second earthquake is very serious and outweighs the rise in global commodity prices. Also the improvement in the US economy is likely to push the pair lower.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar.

Read Next

Irish Bank Defaults Closer as Voters Speak Out

• Yohay Elam
• 12 years

NBNZ Business Confidence is the main event this week overshadowed by the devastation of last week's major earthquake. Here's an outlook for the events in New  Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for MZD/USD. Last week's major earthquake hit the central business district of Christchurch with an estimated damage of at least $12 billion. New Zealand's Prime Minister John Key said that the economic impact of this earthquake will be worse than the one in September. The New Zealand government has a standing disaster fund, aimed to cover homes for up to $NZ100,000 in damage, but it does not cover…