The New Zealand dollar couldn’t withstand the European storm and dropped for another week. NBNZ Business Confidence, Current account and GDP are the highlight of this week. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD
Last week figures revealed that New Zealand’s manufacturing sector contracted further in October, reaching 45.7 from 46.6 in the previous month. The drop occurred despite the approaching holiday season when production usually increases. Will the manufacturing sector improve this month?
Updates: New Zealand’s NBNZ Business Confidence was lower than last month, only 16.9 points. A successful Spanish auction helped the pair from afar. All in all, the 0.7550 to 0.7636 range prevails. Hope from Europe sent the pair above 0.7723 for a short time, before the fall. GDP in New Zealand is the next big event. See how to trade this event with NZD/USD. Q3 GDP surprised to the upside, but it came on top of huge revisions to previous data. The kiwi was hurt, but is now recovering and challenging 77.23 once again. Another earthquake hit Christchurch. The magnitude 5.8 on Richter scale quake shook the kiwi as well, but it managed to top 0.7723 and trade around 0.7750.
NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Sunday.New Zealand’s consumer confidence remained flat in the third quarter reaching 112. The lack of growth may indicate the possible affect of global slowdown. But still, the reading is relatively optimistic, the highest since the third quarter of last year.
- NBNZ Business Confidence: Monday, 0:00.New Zealand business confidence increased in November reaching 18.3 after13.2 in October. The rise suggests a moderate improvement among businesses as 28.8% of companies believe business will improve.
- Current Account: Tuesday, 21:45.New Zealand’s current account deficit widened considerable to – NZ$0.92 billion in the second quarter following NZ$0.09 deficit billion in the first quarter. The high deficit occurred after a sharp decrease in foreign investments and a decline in tourist spending.
- Credit Card Spending: Wednesday, 2:00. Consumer spending increased in October as credit card billings edged up 7.9%. The rise came amid the Rugby World Cup event and followed 5.3% increase in the previous month. Domestic billings expanded by 2.8% to $2.3 billion, while local spending on foreign cards reached $319 million.
- GDP: Wednesday, 21:45.New Zealand economy expanded, by a mere 0.1%, in the second quarter, following a 0.9% jump in the first quarter. The growth rate was below the 0.5% increase expected. The RBNZ blamed the global economic slowdown for this moderate increase.
* All times are GMT.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
Kiwi/dollar tried to move higher, but this was short-lived. The pair dropped, found support at 0.7550 (discussed last week) but eventually bounced only at 0.7470. It then recovered and after reconquering 0.7550, it closed at 0.7616. The pair was “well behaved”
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
We start lower this time. 0.8060 was resistance in October and support beforehand. The round number of 0.80 managed to cap the pair in November and remains of high importance, especially due to its psychological importance.
Another round number, 0.79, is now minor resistance, after being approached in December. 0.7840 capped the pair in October and became much stronger in December, holding the range.
0.7723 proved to be a significant line – very distinct in separating ranges and the bottom border of the range. 0.7637 was a swing low in September and provided its strength in December as a swing low. It is a still strong, after capping a recovery attempt in December.
0.7550 now has a stronger role after working as a very distinct line separating ranges. It had a similar role back in January. 0.7470 was the trough in October and worked as perfect support in December.
The fresh low of 0.7370 seen in November is the lowest level since March and will be tested on the way down. 0.7340 was minor support back in February and March and is minor now.
The last line is the veteran 0.72, which worked as support many times in the past.
I remain bearish on NZD/USD
Even if the European troubles calm down before Christmas, the significant slowdown in China, together with rising chances of a rate cut in New Zealand can send the pair further down.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.
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