The kiwi finished the week higher, and now expects the all-important employment figures. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.
NZD/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
The rate decision was mixed – on one hand, Alan Bollard declared that the rates will rise during 2010, but clearly said some factors will “reduce the extent to which the OCR will need to be increased relative to previous cycles” – meaning that the interest won’t rise too much. OK, let’s start. The technical analysis will follow:
- ANZ Commodity Prices: Published on Monday at 3:00 GMT. New Zealand, an exporter of commodities depends on their prices. Prices have risen in the past 13 months, although the moves became more mild. Last month’s 1.8% rise will probably be followed by a similar rise.
- Labor Cost Index: Published on Monday at 22:45 GMT. This quarterly index combines both employment and inflation. New Zealand’s labor cost rose between 0.3% to 0.5% in the past year- very stable. A rise above 1% is necessary for raising the chances of a future rate hike, but only 0.4% is rpedicted.
- Employment data: Published on Wednesday at 22:45 GMT. New Zealand publishes its employment figures only once per quarter. The situation isn’t as good as in Australia. In the past year, employment squeezed every time. This time, the drop of 0.1% will probably be followed by a rise of the same scale. The problem last quarter was with the unemployment rate – it leaped from 6.5% to 7.3%, far higher than expected. No change in the unemployment rate is predicted this time, but the employment change number will probably rise by 0.3%.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
The kiwi had a good start to the week, rising above 0.72, but this was short-lived. It then fell to 0.71, before making a second ascent. This time, NZD/USD broke through 0.72 and bounced only at the next resistance line – 0.7320.
After closing at 0.7269, the kiwi’s range is 0.72 to 0.7320. Note that some lines have been added on last week’s outlook. Below, 0.7050 continues to be a minor line of support, followed by the round number of 0.70. Even lower, 0.68 is the next support line, being the bottom in February.
Looking up, a break of 0.7320 will send the kiwi towards the 0.7440 resistance line, which was a stubborn peak at the beginning of the year. Higher, the next significant resistance line is the 0.7634, which was the peak in October, and the highest since 2008.
I am bullish on NZD/USD.
Despite stating that the tightening cycle will be milder than previous ones, the clear intent to raise the rates pushes the kiwi higher. The quarterly employment figures will determine the next moves.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
- For the British Pound, look into the GBP/USD forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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