NZD/USD Outlook September 24-28

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NZD/USD traded in range throughout most of the week and eventually made some small gains. NBNZ Business Confidence is the highlight event of this week. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

The New Zealand economy expanded 0.6% in the second quarter, following a revised 1.0% GDP rise in the first quarter. The reading was better than the 0.4% rise forecast by analysts. GDP increased 2.6% on a yearly base in the second quarter prompted by an increase in agricultural activity, all in all, encouraging news for NZ economy.

Updates: Trade Balance will be released later on Tuesday. The markets are bracing for a huge deficit, the first since February. The kiwi has steadied after its recent slide, as NZD/USD was trading at 0.8239. Trade Balance was very weak, posting a deficit of -789 million dollars. The estimate stood at -617M. It marks the first monthly deficit since February. NBNZ Business Confidence dropped to -17 points, its worst reading of 2012. Building Consents will be released later on Thursday. The kiwi has shrugged off these weak figures, and continues to push upwards. NAD/USD was was trading at 0.8283.

NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:NZD/USD Forex Chart September 24 28 2012

  1. Trade Balance: Tuesday, 22:45.New Zealand registered a small trade surplus of $15 million in July, amid shipments of dairy products to China offsetting weaker exports to Australia,Indonesia andIndia. This reading was contrary to predictions of a $15 million deficit following $287 million in the previous month. Total exports to China increased by 39% in July from a year earlier while exports to Australia declined by 7.4% due to a drop in crude oil and refrigeration equipment. Nonetheless strong dairy production is the main force backing NZ’s export recovery. Trade balance surplus is expected to flip to a deficit of $610 million.
  2. NBNZ Business Confidence: Thursday, 1:00.New Zealand business confidence climbed in August to 19.5 from15.1 in July although still sluggish.New Zealand Chief Economist Cameron Bagrie claims the rise is entirely seasonal due to the approaching spring. A net 26.4% of companies forecast an improvement in activity, compared with 24.0% that expected an improvement in July.
  3. Building Consents: Thursday, 22:45.  The total number of building permits climbed a seasonally adjusted 2.0% in July, after a 5.9% gain in the preceding month. The reading was lower than the 3.0% rise forecasted by analysts. On a yearly basis, the number of permits surged 26.0%. Apartments were the major force behind the boost of new housing consents in July, with 235 new apartments approved, the highest number since May 2009.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

NZD/$ began the week with choppy range trading and then dropped to the 0.8220 line (mentioned last week). It then climbed higher and was capped by 0.8340.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

0.8680 served as support when the pair traded higher during 2011. 0.8620 had a similar role around the same period of time.

0.8573 capped the pair in September 2011 and is distant resistance. 0.8505 served as support as well.

0.8470 was the swing high seen in February and remains important resistance. 0.84 was resistance back in February 2012.

0.8340 capped the pair during September 2012 and should be watched. 0.8260 capped the pair during March, and is stubborn resistance and is support once again.

0.8220 worked as stubborn resistance in August 2012 and it also slowed down the rally in September 2012. 0.8125 separated ranges in August 2012 and has renewed strength now after capping the pair in September 2012.

0.8040 capped the pair in August 2012 and also served as support during the same month. It is weak support after temporarily holding the pair down. The round number of 0.80 managed to cap the pair in November and remains of high importance, especially due to its psychological importance. It was hit by the recent moves and somewhat weaker now.

0.7915 served as an important cushion when the pair was falling in September 2012. 0.7840 provided support for the pair several times during June 2012 and also worked as resistance back at the end of 2011.

The round number of 0.78 is significant support after working as such in July 2012. 0.7723 supported the pair back at the beginning of 2012 and also worked in the other direction in June 2012. 0.7620 provided support in May 2012 and is resistance once again, although weaker than in previous weeks.

I am neutral on NZD/USD

On one hand, worrying signs from China weigh on the pair. On the other hand, QE-Infinity and the better-than-expected GDP help the kiwi. More range trading?

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Anat Dror – Senior Writer

I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew.

In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students.

I’ve also worked as a community organizer

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