NZD/USD: Trading the New Zealand GDP December 2012

New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is published each quarter. This key  release measures production and growth of the economy, and analysts consider GDP one the most important indicators of economic activity. A reading which is better than the market forecast is bullish for the New Zealand dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for NZD/USD.

Published on Wednesday at 21:45 GMT.

Indicator Background

New Zealand GDP is a key economic indicator, and provides an excellent indication of the health and direction of the New Zealand economy. Traders should pay close attention to the GDP release, as any unexpected reading could affect the direction of NZD/USD.

GDP in Q2  posted a 0.6%,  better than the  estimate of 0.4%. However, this was considerably lower than the Q1 release of a 1.1% gain.  The estimate for Q3 stands at 0.4%, and the markets will be hoping that the key indicator can once again beat the forecast.

Sentiments and levels

The kiwi has enjoyed a strong December,  gaining over two cents against its US counterpart. Will the rally continue? The economy is doing  fairly well, although the  quarterly  unemployment release was  weak.  The markets are  anticipating a modest gain in GDP,  and the New Zealand dollar should be able to hold  its own if the reading is not a major disappointment.  So, the overall sentiment is bullish on NZD/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 90, 88.42, 84.70, 83.60, 81.75, and 81.

5 Scenarios

1. Within expectations: 0.1% to 0.7%. In such a scenario, NZD/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
2. Above expectations: 0.8% to 1.1%: An unexpected higher reading can push the pair above one resistance line.
3. Well above expectations: Above 1.1%: An surge in the reading would bolster the kiwi, and the pair could break a second line of resistance as a  result.
4. Below expectations: -0.2% to 0.1%: A GDP figure at or close to zero could push NZD/USD below one support level.
5. Well below  expectations: Below -0.2%. A very weak reading would hurt the  kiwi, and the pair could push below a second level of support.

For more on the kiwi, see the NZD/USD forecast.

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