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According to the latest Reuters poll, the risks remain skewed to the downside in oil prices this year despite countries easing lockdown restriction and top oil producers slashing output.

Key findings

“The survey of 45 analysts forecast Brent crude would average $35.84 a barrel in 2020, 7.5% below the $38.76 consensus in a March survey. It has averaged $45 so far this year.   

WTI was forecast to average $31.47 a barrel in 2020 in the latest poll, down from $35.29 in March.

Analysts forecast demand would fall by about 20 million-25 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter and 9.2 million-10.6 million bpd over 2020. 

Most analysts agreed that compliance with the OPEC+ deal would be strong but might, at best, only put a floor under already weak prices rather than lift them.

Some analysts said the market slump was leading to broader shut-ins of production, including by higher cost U.S. shale producers, that could support prices in the second half.”