According to James Smith, Developed Markets Economist at ING, oil prices are likely to remain well supported for the remainder of this year, the market is set to be in deficit over 4Q18, while Iranian exports have fallen more than expected.
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“There is also the uncertainty over whether OPEC has the capability to make up for any shortfalls in the short term. We struggle to identify a catalyst that would put significant downward pressure on the market in the short term, and as a result, we have revised higher our 4Q18 Brent forecast from $75 per barrel to $85 per barrel. However, we still foresee weaker prices moving into 2019, with downside risks to oil demand growth, driven by the ongoing trade war, and the current strength in oil prices coupled with emerging market currency weakness.”
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