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Analysts at TD Securities note that despite repeated warnings that Libya could be on the verge of a civil war, with military escalations now approaching oil fields and oil prices are under pressure as escalating trade woes keep discretionary capital flowing out of the commodities complex.

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“Geopolitical risks to the global supply remain extremely elevated “” particularly as Iranian-centric tensions are at a boil “” which should keep a risk premium embedded into prices to reflect higher insurance costs. Meanwhile, with API reporting another large crude build, the DOE’s inventory report will take center stage today. As stocks continue to build in the US, our view that Brent-WTI will widen further into 2H19 is strengthening.”