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OPEC has agreed to a deep cut proposal for the broader cartel as all eyes are on Russia as a 1.5m bpd cut would need a nod from OPEC’s allies in order to materialize, strategists at TD Securities report. WTI trades at $46.57.

Key quotes

“Saudi is mulling adding to its voluntary production cuts, which could constitute a positive surprise if the agreement is struck.” 

“While today’s talks do not include the OPEC+ ministers, Novak’s decision to leave the city without supporting an agreement was interpreted as a strong signal to energy markets that Russia opposed a deep cut.”

“The collapse in market prices may well have triggered the Putin-put — particularly as the failure to reach a deal would have significant impact on energy markets.” 

“The bar for further CTA buying in WTI and Brent crude is still elevated — trend followers are more likely to be active in products on an OPEC positive surprise.”