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  • WTI is currently trading at $63.84 between a range of $63.32bbls and $64.73bbls.
  • Stochastics lean bearish on the longer time frames as the price is overbought.

On a technical basis, U.S.-based West Texas Intermediate crude is making hard work of the top side as bulls attempt to defend a full-on breakout to the downside. However, for now, at least, fundamentals are serving a helping hand.

The price of oil is hanging in the balance of a geopolitical environment and sentiment for what might come of the Trump administration’s plight to squeeze demand away from Iranian oil supplies and draw in extra production from the Saudis and allies.  

Oil climbs on mixed sentiment surrounding Trump/OPEC

However, on Tuesday, Saudi Arabia was seen refuting Trump’s comments that OPEC will pump more. Instead, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid al-Falih, said that they will adhere to the production-cut agreement led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries which expires in late June. Khalid al-Falih also told Russia’s RIA news agency that the kingdom won’t rush to raise oil supplies to make up for Iranian oil lost due to U.S. sanctions; Subsequently, oil has caught a bid which is leaving futures in a good spot,  poised for a monthly rise of 5.6% which will be their fourth straight monthly gain.  

In the background, the situation in Venezuela simmers away on the back burners but it could soon come back to the fore should a military uprising spark off production concerns as output would be disrupted throughout the political turmoil and potential coup as the  Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó seeks to overthrow President Nicolás Maduro with military support.  

WTI levels

Stochastics lean bearish on the longer time frames as the price is overbought. However, with no follow-through from the bears which price action left last Friday’s lows intact, bulls have stepped back in; This has placed the price well and truly back into the rising wedge. However, there is more work to do from the bulls if they are to make it out of troubled waters. The bearish shadows on the weekly and today’s daily candlestick do not bode well at this juncture.

64.80 needs to give and the price will need to hold above it in order to bring about some legitimacy to this reversal of which has yet to pierce the 61.8% Fino retracement of the 23rd April to 26th April sell-off’s range. On a subsequent follow through to the downside, the next stop would target the 200-D SMA and 50-D SMA converging just below 60.80. However, should bulls commit to the black gold within the rising wedge and above 64.80, then the case for a test of 69.50 and the 70 psychological level remains on the cards with price now back above the 61.8% Fibo of Oct-Dec 2018 range at 63.70.