Only a few more hours until the ECB meeting and the EUR has moved to the top of its overnight trading range. Apparently, traders believe the information that will be made official this morning will be “EUR” positive. The bond program, that was leaked yesterday morning would include unlimited purchases of government debt. The debt would be sterilized, and the ECB would not set a public cap on yields.
The bond maturities would be short dated, with none more than three years. Another feature of this plan is the elimination of “senior status” on these bonds, meaning the ECB will forfeit the right to be paid back first, so private investors will not be given secondary status when it comes to repaying these debts.
Update: Draghi releases OMT details.
Guest post by Matthew Lifson, Foreign Exchange Trader, Market Analyst of Cambridge Mercantile Group.
The first matter of business for the ECB this morning is what they will do with interest rates. Most analysts had expected a 25 bp move by the central bank moving the key interest rate from 0.75% to 0.50%. But after the news of the bond program surfaced yesterday, market analysts are now not sure if there will be an interest rate move. The deposit rate is usually 75 bps below the key interest rate and the deposit rate is presently at zero. If the ECB maintains the 75 point gap, the deposit rate would move below zero, meaning banks would be paying the ECB to place excess funds there.
So, today is the day Mario Draghi pus his reputation on the line. It is time to finally produce the plan that is going to save the EUR. The ECB rate decision will come at 7:45 am EST this morning. The Draghi press conference will be at 8:30 am. I will be sending out another report following the press conference.
While all the currency world will be focused on Draghi this morning, PM Rajoy of Spain and Chancellor Merkel meet today in Madrid, while President Hollande speaks with UK PM Cameron. There will be plenty of comments this afternoon.
In other currency news, the Bank of England also will meet today and they are expected to keep their key rate at 0.5%. It is also expected to maintain their bond purchase target at 375 billion pounds.
EUR is higher overnight as is the EUR/CHF which has moved quite a ways away from the 1.2000-15 level that it has been trading in. EUR/CHF trading at 1.2050 is given traders an indication that the ECB will come through today. We shall see.
Asian and European equity markets are higher this morning. DOW Futures are stronger this morning at 4:45 am indicating a positive opening to the US equity markets.
Stay tuned.
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