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The yield curve is flattening and this serves as a warning sign of an upcoming recession. Are the worries justified? We begin with this and continue to the breakout in oil prices.

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  1. Pound problems: We start off with the Brexit negotiations which are stuck on the divorce bill. Is a transition deal still in play? As time passes by, things look more complicated and Britain lags behind. We talk about May’s mutineers, the BOE’s dovish hike, and inflation which overshadows wages.
  2. Real raises in the US: Across the Atlantic, wages are still rising in real terms but these salaries are not soaring anymore. We note how pay hikes are falling and examine the trends against CPI and core CPI in recent years. What does this mean for the Fed and the new governor? We examine.
  3. Preview: The week of Thanksgiving features the Fed meeting minutes, durable goods orders, and quite a few other figures.

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