Quiet Monday ahead has German IFO, US Home Sales in focus – TDS

As noted by analysts at TD Global Securities, Monday’s Asia session brings a thin schedule, and last Friday’s risk-on stance is expected to continue into the new week.

Key quotes

“Markets traded with a risk-on tone into the weekend despite escalated US-EU trade tensions after President Trump threatened a 20% tariff on European auto imports. While this hit individual automakers, the broader equity market took it in stride with major indices posting gains.  USTs saw little change while Canadian rates bull-steepened on soft data.

Crude oil prices are surging  after OPEC announced measures to increase supply that fell short of expectations. USD continues to unwind recent gains with the Antipodeans  leading the move. EUR  quickly recovered after a shallow dip on trade concerns while a surge in oil prices helped offset weak data for CAD.

EUR – We see downside risks to Germany’s IFO survey for June, with the headline index slipping from 102.2 to 101.4 (mkt 101.8), and more downside coming from expectations than the current assessment.

USD – New home sales for April are the lone data release and the market looks for a muted 0.5% m/m increase to a 665k pace. We will also hear from the Fed’s Bostic and Kaplan who speak at 13:15 and 13:45, respectively.

OPEC In line with its commitment to maintain market balance, OPEC+ agreed to partially reverse its strategy of curbing output by considering a 1 MM bpd production quota increase. The increases in actual barrels is estimated to be a lower 600k -800k, which is only modestly higher than our earlier 500k projection. This increase is somewhat less than markets expected and we should continue to experience tightness and higher oil prices, with both Brent and WTI trending toward recent highs of $80.50 and $72.83, respectively.”