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According to analysts at ANZ, the build-up to the May RBA meeting will reach a crescendo in the coming weeks as the CPI looms large.

Key Quotes

“With our expectation of a +0.4% we think that the case for a RBA cut remains thin, However, there will be little tolerance for any weakness, and we think that a core print in the realms of a +0.2% q/q could trigger an easing from the RBA. Should the CPI print as we expect, the AUD will likely push higher as easing expectations are unwound.”

“For this strength to be sustained however, we would need to see the recent green shoots in the Australian economy sustaining. In this light, building approvals, PMIs, consumer confidence and private sector credit will be in focus.”