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Analysts at TD Securities point out that RBA Minutes from the July meeting were published today with RBA noting heightened trade tensions with “Members noted that trade tensions extended beyond the United States and China, and could escalate through non-tariff measures such as administrative delays.

Key Quotes

“An escalation of trade tensions could harm global growth by undermining confidence and delaying investment decisions and could dampen international trade.” Lots of “could” in there, so a risk just now and worth monitoring to see if trade is actually hampered over the coming months.”

“There was a lot of debate last month whether the RBA had changed its tune on leaving out the ‘next move is likely to be up’. This sentence was reintroduced, reaffirming the RBA has little appetite to cut.”