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Analysts at TD Securities expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to stay on hold at the policy meeting on 5 December.

Key Quotes

“At the 5 October meeting the RBI left the repo rate unchanged in a 5-1 vote, contrary to expectations. However the RBI shifted its stance from “neutral” to “calibrated tightening”, which we interpret to mean data dependent. We expect no change in stance at this meeting.”

“A moderate outlook for inflation, taken together with a firmer INR will mean that the RBI is unlikely to feel pressure to tighten policy at this meeting.”

“We think they will likely wait until at least February 19, at which point there will likely be more concrete signs of higher inflation, before pulling the trigger to another hike.”