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According to analysts at Westpac, market pricing for the RBNZ OCR retains downward momentum and there is now 90% chances of a rate cut by March 2020, compared to last week’s 85%, and matching early Feb’s 90% which is the low in this cycle.

Key Quotes

“The main drivers remain global, with particular sensitivity to RBA pricing which is now at almost 2 cuts by March 2020.”

“Updates from the RBA and FOMC this week, plus NZ GDP data, will be key to extending the trend in RBNZ pricing this week. And next week we have an RBNZ OCR Review (one-page statement only, but it should reflect the H2 2018 soft patch in the economy).”