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Dominick Stephens, Chief Economist at Westpac, suggests that the RBNZ’s November MPS is likely to be at least a little more hawkish than the August  missive as the recent data on the New Zealand economy and inflation has been clearly stronger than the RBNZ expected.

Key Quotes

“But any change will be minor and confined to the details. We expect the RBNZ to stick to the same broad outlook for monetary policy.”

“The RBNZ’s OCR forecast may be slightly higher than the August forecast.”

“But the all-important comment that the next move in the OCR could be “up or down” will probably be retained.”

“For markets, the balance of risks is skewed towards swap rates and the NZD rising a little.”