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Analysts at TD Securities point out that on August 9, the RBNZ surprised the markets with the most dovish tone in years.

Key Quotes

“The Bank needs to see a pickup in growth and inflation to prevent a cut, not trigger a rate hike as previously thought. The risk of an OCR cut has shifted from near-zero to around 30%. We push out our first hike from May to November 2019. As we remain more constructive about the outlook for New Zealand, we need to see substantial growth and/or inflation disappointment to push the first hike into 2020.”