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Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ, points out that contrary to analyst and market expectations, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 1.0% today, despite significantly lowering the near-term growth outlook.

Key Quotes

“The forecast OCR track was all but unchanged, with a low of 0.90% hinting at further action if required.”

“We expect the RBNZ will continue to be disappointed on the growth front, but they have made a meaningful downward revision to their estimate of the economy’s speed limit. This makes future aggressive action less likely.”

“We are now forecasting two further cuts in May and August next year, taking the OCR to 0.5%. The risks around this forecast are tilted towards earlier and/or more cuts, depending partly on the outcome of the RBNZ’s capital proposals.”