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Analysts at TD Securities suggest that in line with the almost unanimous consensus, they expect the CBR to cut its Key Rate by 25bps to 7% at today’s Board Meeting.

Key Quotes

“Since the July meeting, inflation developments have been positive with CPI inflation falling to 4.3% y/y in August from a prior 4.6% and, of course, the global financial environment remains dovish with the Fed likely to cut at the end of this month.”

“The biggest argument against easing since the July meeting is that USDRUB has moved around 5% higher, which could add to ‘pro-inflationary’ risks. On balance, we still think that CBR will cut by 25bps and cautiously admit the “possibility of further key rate reduction at one of the upcoming Board of Directors’ meetings”.”