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Analysts at TD Securities suggest that in line with the unanimous consensus, they expect the CBR to keep its Key Rate on hold at 7.75% at today’s Board Meeting.

Key Quotes

“At the March meeting the CBR struck a more dovish tone, saying that the impact of the January VAT hikes on inflation was less than they feared and cutting the end-2019 inflation forecast to 4.7-5.2% from 5.0-5.5%, with inflation returning to the 4% target in H1 2020.”

“Furthermore, the CBR admitted the possibility of the Key Rate being cut in 2019. The CBR will be encouraged by the rise in oil prices since the March meeting and in the relative stability of USDRUB, and we expect the CBR to continue with the fairly dovish tone.”

“We are currently forecasting the first hike to come at the December meeting, but the risks are currently skewed towards it being earlier rather than later than this.”