Analysts at Goldman Sachs in an Oct. 2 note that investors short the 10-year treasury note against its two- and 30-year counterparts.
That position will make money if the 10-year note yield rises more than yields on the two and 30-year bonds.
The spread between 10-year and 30-year yields has widened by more than 30 basis points this year and was around 80 basis points on Monday,
Meanwhile, the spread between the 10-year and two-year yields has risen by 28.3 basis points this year.
Key points (Source: Bloomberg)
If the Democrats sweep the US elections, 10-year bonds will suffer most, with yields rising by 30 to 40 basis points in the month following the outcome.
The treasury yield curve’s front-end has been anchored by bets that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates near 0% for at least three years.
The US elections are due on Nov. 3, however, voting has already begun in many states.
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