The price of silver has continued its advance into the $28 area reaching a high of $28.45 on Thursday, rallying from $26.79.
The greenback just can’t catch a break and there is more downside in the pipeline if markets continue to trade with complacency pertaining to the coronavirus pandemic, geo-politics and even the macroeconomy.
The US dollar has been on the receiving end of Fed policy and a relentless recovery in the global equity markets.
However, it should be noted that there is scope for temporary corrections to this which is where the greenback will come back to the table as the markets preferred go-to currency at times of risk-off.
We had started to see at least some correctives about the greenback earlier this week, but the amount of bearishness is overwhelmingly pertaining to the Fed and the US economy.
The consensus is that the US is not able to grow at a faster rate than the rest of the world and that has taken value away from parking idle capital denominated in US rates.
The precious metals train keeps on chugging
Continued weakness in the USD and real rates remain the main factors supporting the surge higher,
analysts at TD Securities have noted
Signals from the Fed that they are weighing the abandoning of preemptive rate moves have also added some juice to the move.
While we agree real rate suppression and massive stimulus on a global scale will see gold move higher, we caution the yellow metal is still currently running hot relative to these observable drivers.
Silver to take the reigns
Indeed, the markets are stretched in terms of positioning in both gold and the US dollar, and that is where there is some scope for the ratio to improve in silver’s favour.
Markets will be on the lookout for a recovery in US rates or deflationary sentiment ging forward, for gold doesn’t not as a hedge against such. Meanwhile, so long as the markets assume a recovery in the industry, at least for the nearer term, silver could find its edge:
On the industrial side, silver continues to outperform and remains our precious metal of choice as both precious metal flows, and industrial demand improvements combine for strong performance.
Silver levels
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