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  • Silver has been trending higher along an upward sloping channel over the past two weeks or so.
  • The mentioned channel now seemed to constitute the formation of a bearish flag chart pattern.
  • The bearish set-up should keep a lid on any further upside near the $26.25-30 resistance zone.

Silver consolidated its recent gains to over three-week tops and remained confined in a range, just below the $26.00 mark through the early European session.

From a technical perspective, the recent bounce from YTD lows, around the $23.80-75 region has been along an upward sloping channel. This, along with the overnight move back above the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, favours bullish traders and supports prospects for additional gains.

The constructive outlook is reinforced by the fact that technical indicators on the daily chart have just started moving into the bullish territory. That said, RSI (14) on the 4-hour chart remained closer to overbought territory and seemed to be the only factor capping gains for the XAG/USD.

Looking at the broader picture, the XAG/USD’s sharp pullback from the key $30.00 psychological mark and the mentioned ascending trend-channel seemed to constitute the formation of a bearish flag pattern. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for strong near-term gains.

Hence, any subsequent positive move runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly near the trend-channel hurdle, currently near the $26.25-30 area. This is closely followed by a heavy supply zone near the $26.40-50 heavy supply zone, which if cleared should negate the bearish set-up.

The XAG/USD might then accelerate the move and aim to reclaim the $27.00 round-figure mark. The momentum could further get extended towards the $27.65-70 intermediate hurdle en-route the next relevant bullish target around the $28.00 level.

On the flip side, the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, around mid-$25.00s now seems to protect the immediate downside. Any subsequent decline might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the lower boundary of the ascending channel, just ahead of the key $25.00 mark.

XAG/USD 4-hour chart


Techincal levels to watch