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Economists at ABN Amro have substantially upgraded the outlook for the US economy and now forecast a slight rise in US treasury yields and 10y US real yields while the US dollar is expected to rise at a moderate pace. They have downgraded silver and think that gold prices have peaked and will decline going forward but remain positive for platinum and palladium.

Key quotes

“We expect silver prices to decline with gold prices because slightly higher US nominal and real yields and a higher US dollar are also negative for silver prices. Moreover, long silver is a crowded trade as well (as gold is). But we expect silver prices to be more resilient than gold and to outperform gold. This is because silver has a substantial industrial demand component. We expect a further recovery in the industrial sector so this will support silver prices.”

“We continue to think that platinum prices have the largest upside potential this year. The stronger outlook for the US economy is positive for platinum, while slightly higher US yields, a less dovish Fed and a modest rise in the dollar are negative for platinum. These factors will make the price outlook for platinum less bullish than we had.”

“We still expect higher palladium prices this year. Palladium is the most cyclical precious metal and therefore the stronger economic outlook in the US will support palladium prices. Palladium prices are less sensitive to developments in US rates and the dollar, but these factors still have some impact. As a result, we expect higher prices because of higher demand for palladium from car catalysts and the industrial sector, but the rise will probably be more modest.”