Singapore: A strong first half, an uncertain second – Standard Chartered

According to analysts at Standard Chartered, Singapore’s Q2 GDP was likely robust on recovering services and firm manufacturing.

Key Quotes

“We expect Q2 GDP growth to have remained firm at 4.2% y/y (versus 4.4% in Q1). The services sector likely continued its recovery, supported by strong regional economic performance and digital transformation, benefitting the financial services and information and communication services sub-sectors. The improving labour market may have also helped support domestic spending.”

“Manufacturing growth likely eased from the robust 9.8% y/y in Q1 but remained firm. Industrial production (IP) in April-May 2018 rose 10.1%, but there was an unfavourable base effect in June.”

“Our GDP growth tracker suggests upside risk to our Q2 GDP growth forecast. The difference is likely due to our tracker being reliant on more readily available externally-driven activity data, such as IP.”

“While H1 growth was healthy, the outlook is now more uncertain given the latest negative developments on the US-China trade front.”

“We had projected slower growth in H2, but the negative trade developments are increasing the downside risks.”