Irene Cheung, analyst at ANZ, suggests that they see a growing risk that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) could stay put at their April policy review, guided by a more global and regional central banks taking a dovish turn.
“We will watch February CPI data due on 25 March for further cues.”
“A sustained rise in USD/SGD forward points since late December suggests that the market has been pricing out further tightening by the MAS in April. This has helped underpin the swap-offered rate (SOR), lagging the USD Libor in its down-move.”
“Since we think it is highly unlikely that the MAS will ease policy in April, there is limited further upside risk in USD/SGD forward points. We expect SOR to ease over time.”