Societé Generale analysis team suggests that the significance of an inverted yield curve continues to be hotly debated but there’s clearly a consensus that 1) curve needs to be ‘properly’ inverted to be a recession indicator and 2) on average there’s a big lag, of over a year, between inversion & recession. Key Quotes “I’ve always struggled with the fascination with inversion, because the curve inversion really tells us that rates are about to peak. That there is usually a recession a year or so after Fed Funds have peaked, isn’t exactly earth-shattering.” “Fed Funds futures price a zero probability of a rate hike in the next year, and a near-80% chance of a cut, so we shouldn’t be surprised by a 2020 recession, nor should we expect markets to position for recession this far in advance.” FX Street FX Street FXStreet is the leading independent portal dedicated to the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market. It was launched in 2000 and the portal has always been proud of their unyielding commitment to provide objective and unbiased information, to enable their users to take better and more confident decisions. View All Post By FX Street FXStreet News share Read Next Brazil: Copom Minutes revels the neutral stance for now – Rabobank FX Street 4 years Societé Generale analysis team suggests that the significance of an inverted yield curve continues to be hotly debated but there's clearly a consensus that 1) curve needs to be 'properly' inverted to be a recession indicator and 2) on average there's a big lag, of over a year, between inversion & recession. Key Quotes "I've always struggled with the fascination with inversion, because the curve inversion really tells us that rates are about to peak. That there is usually a recession a year or so after Fed Funds have peaked, isn't exactly earth-shattering." "Fed Funds futures price a zero probability… Regulated Forex Brokers All Brokers Sponsored Brokers Broker Benefits Min Deposit Score Visit Broker 1 $100T&Cs Apply 0% Commission and No stamp DutyRegulated by US,UK & International StockCopy Successfull Traders 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk. 2 T&Cs Apply 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk. 3 Recommended Broker $100T&Cs Apply No deposit or withdrawal feesTrade major forex pairs such as EUR/USD with leverage up to 30:1 and tight spreads of 0.9 pips Low $100 minimum deposit to open a trading account 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk. 4 T&Cs Apply Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk. 5 Recommended Broker $0T&Cs Apply Trade gold, silver, and platinum directly against major currenciesUp to 1:500 leverage for forex trading24/5 customer service by phone and email 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.