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The S&P 500 Index needs to close above 3550 to see its bullish “triangle” continuation pattern earlier than expected, clearing the way for a move back to the 3588 record high and new highs in due course, according to economists at Credit Suisse.

See – S&P 500 Index tend to perform well in the three-month period following an election – MUFG

Key quotes

“S&P 500 strength has stalled as expected at the top of its ‘triangle’ range, seen starting at 3523 and stretching up to the 3550 October high, but whilst our bias has been for a fresh swing lower in the range before the bullish ‘triangle’ is established, there is a clear and growing risk we may see an upward resolution sooner than expected, especially with the rising 13 and 63-day moving averages now completing a bullish ‘golden cross’.” 

“A close above 3550 remains needed to see the bull ‘triangle’ confirmed for a move back to the 3588 record high, with scope for an overshoot to its ‘typical’ extreme at 3600/02 (15% above the 200-day average), which we would look to cap at first. If the ‘triangle’ story is correct though we would see scope for new record highs in due course and a move towards 3655/57 next and eventually we think 3900.” 

“Support stays seen at 3486/84 initially, below which can reinforce the view the ‘triangle’ pattern needs longer to play out yet with support then seen next at 3459, then the lower end of the recent price gap at 3443/40.”