S&P 500 Index needs to surpass 3711/12 to gain strength toward 3720/25 – Credit Suisse

The S&P 500 Index turned sharply back higher on Wednesday and analysts at Credit Suisse continue to give the upside the benefit of the doubt and maintain an immediate tactical bullish bias whilst above 3633.

See – S&P 500 Index: In search of a new catalyst to rise further – Morgan Stanley

Key quotes

“The S&P 500 quickly turned back higher on Wednesday after holding support at 3633. Despite daily MACD crossing lower and the market’s ‘euphoric’ state (90% S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day average and above the upper end of what we see as its ‘typical’ extreme), we continue to give the upside the benefit of the doubt for now.” 

“A move above 3711/12 is needed to add momentum to the upmove and open up our 3720/25 next objective. Whilst we would expect this to cap at first, a direct break can see a cluster of what we expect to be tougher resistances in the 3765/85 zone. The market does remain in a vulnerable state due to the loss of momentum, which keeps the risk of a correction lower elevated.” 

“Only below 3633 would see downward pressure increase further though, with support then seen next at 3625/22, ahead of the late November low and price gap at 3594/78, with fresh buyers expected here. Failure to hold here though would expose the 38.2% retracement of the October/December rally at 3530.”