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The S&P 500 Index is expected to be capped at its 13-day average at 3852 for a fresh turn lower in what analysts at Credit Suisse look to be a potentially lengthy consolidation/corrective phase.    

Key quotes

“A sharp recovery for the S&P 500 on Friday, but this has just bought the market back to its 13-day exponential average at 3852. We look for this to ideally cap for a fresh move lower in line with our broader view for a lengthy consolidation/corrective phase following the move to our 3900/3930 core target in mid-February.”  

“Below support at 3808/04 is needed to add weight to our view for a fall back to 3784 and eventually a retest of 3723. Beneath here can see a test of we look to be better support at 3694/78 – the late January low and 38.2% retracement of the rally from late October. Our bias would be for a floor to be found here. Should weakness directly extend though this would suggest a more important top is in place and further weakness can be seen with support then seen next at 3663, then 3636/33.”

“Above 3852 can see a retest of the downtrend at 3900/15, but with a fresh cap expected here. Above 3915 is needed to suggest the correction is over and core bull trend resumed, for a move back to 3950/51.”