S&P 500 stays trapped in a near-term range with immediate support seen at 3327/23 and resistance at 3379/81 and the Credit Suisse analyst team remains of the view this is consistent with a broader consolidation phase within the long-term uptrend.
Key quotes
“The S&P 500 is not unsurprisingly under pressure and although the cluster of supports at 3340/23 managed to hold on a closing basis on Friday, including the ‘neckline’ to the small base and rising 13 and 63-day averages, the gap lower and now potential downtrend is seen adding weight to our base case view we remain in a much more protracted consolidation/corrective phase.”
“Immediate resistances move to 3369, with 3379/81 now ideally capping to keep the immediate risk lower. Above though can reassert an upward bias for a move back to 3397/99, then what we look to be tougher resistance, starting at the mid-September highs at 3425/29, with the “measured base objective” at 3437 and with the 61.8% retracement of the fall from September at 3444.”
“A close below 3327/23 would see a near-term top established for a fall back to 3298/93, with a break here needed to confirm the recent base has been negated with support then seen next at 3279, then the uptrend from June, seen today at 3235.”
“The VIX needs to break 31.18 to mark a near-term base.”
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