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S&P 500 stays critically placed on its 63-day average at 3391, a close below which should clear the way for further near-term weakness as well as reinforce a broader sideways range into the US election, with key support seen starting at 3324 and stretching down to 3298/96. The VIX spotlight turns to key resistance at 37.20/38.28, above which would see a significant base established to mark a more concerning rise in volatility and likely market weakness, per Credit Suisse.

See – 2020 US Elections: S&P 500 to dive to 3100 in early January on a Blue Wave – Morgan Stanley

Key quotes

“The S&P 500 stays critically placed, sitting right on its 63-day average at 3391 and with support from the ‘neckline’ to the ‘head & shoulders’ base removed the immediate risk is seen lower.”

“A close below 3391 should confirm the base has indeed been neutralized to reassert the sideways range from the early September peak with support then seen next at 3365 ahead of the late September price gap, starting at 3324 and stretching down to 3298/96, also the uptrend from mid-June. We would look for a fresh floor here.”

“Near-term resistance stays seen at 3410/15, then the 13-day average and short-term downtrend at 3436/41, which we look to cap. Above 3466 though stays needed to reassert a positive tone, with resistance then at 3516/18.” 

“The VIX has surged higher to turn the spotlight on key trend/price resistance at 37.00/38.28. A close above here would see a base complete to warn of a more significant rise in volatility and accompanying fall in the market itself.”