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The S&P 500 is holding key support from the 3209/3199 September low though the market has weakened as the election approaches. Whilst above here, this would suggest that investors are more skewed to a clean sweep election result and the likelihood is that consolidation from September is temporary before the core uptrend resumes. A conclusive move below would instead put in an important bearish “double top”, per Credit Suisse.

See: Nasdaq 100 holds key support to suggest a Biden win may not be the consensus – Credit Suisse

Key quotes

“The S&P 500 has stabilized as expected as we approach the US election after having fallen to within a touching distance of its pivotal support at 3209/3199, which includes the key September low. Key technically will be whether this 3209/3199 support remains intact post the election.”

“Given we are seeing both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hold key supports into tonight and with the long-end of the US bond market actually already breaking key support levels, we remain of the view investors are more positioned to a clean sweep outcome rather than a split or contested result and a ‘blue sweep’ at that.” 

“If we can hold 3209/3199 post the election then that should add weight to the view weakness from September has been consolidation in the broader bull trend. We thus look for a test of key resistance seen starting at the price gap from last week, seen starting at 3342 and stretching up to 3390/94, also the 13 and 63-day averages, with sellers expected here. A close above 3394 though stays needed to suggest a better low has indeed been established, with resistance then seen next at 3410/15, then 3441.”

“A conclusive break below 3199 though would see a significant top established, exposing the 200-day average, currently at 3129. Worryingly for bulls, weekly RSI momentum already looks to be holding a top.”