After a spectacular run since March, the S&P 500 index’s rally has stalled in the last two months ahead of the US presidential election. However, if history is any guide, the index could resume its uptrend once the event risk has passed, according to Standard Chartered.
See: S&P 500 Index to target 3700 by June 2021 – UBS
Key quotes
“Historically, on average, Q4 tends to be positive, and a US election year is no exception. Since 1970, the median return in Q4 in an election year has been 4.8%, close to the historical return of 5.3% in Q4.”
“Specifically, since 1970, the S&P 500 index has shown a tendency to post positive returns in November-December (median return of 2.8%). This trend is also maintained in a US election year, with a median return of 4.1%.”
“The range since the start of the current quarter is in line with the historical norm in an election year and that the momentum tends to pick up once the election is over.”
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