S&P 500 above 4068 can keep the immediate risk higher for a test of test pivotal resistance from the top of its 12-year trend channel from the 2009 low at 4115. With the market already moving into “extreme” territory, analysts at Credit Suisse would then be highly cautious of an interim top here.
See: Depressed VIX not to prevent S&P 500 hitting new highs – CE
S&P 500 to move to a more cautious footing once at 4115
“The S&P 500 remains above high-level price support at 4068 and we look for a push above the 4100 psychological barrier for a move to Fibonacci projection resistance at 4104/08 next, then what we view as more significant resistance at the top of the 12-year trend channel from the 2009 low at 4115.”
“Although we continue to look for a move to our 4200 next core objective this quarter, with market already at the beginning of its ‘typical’ extreme – 15% above the 200-day average and also above daily, weekly and monthly Bollinger Bands – we would be highly cautious of an interim top around 4115/25.”
“Near-term support moves to 4083/79. Below 4068 can ease the immediate upside bias for a fall back to 4057 initially, then the price gap from Monday morning at 4034/20, but with fresh buyers expected here for now.”
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