S&P 500 needs to hold support at 3650/44 in light of the euphoric state of the rally – Credit Suisse

The S&P 500 Index has been unable to maintain its move to new highs, leaving in place a small bearish “reversal day” and support at 3650/44 needs to hold to keep the immediate risk higher, per Credit Suisse.

Key quotes

“With the market remaining seen in a ‘euphoric’ state (91% S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day average and the market is well above the upper end of what we see as its ‘typical’) the rally is now seen at a more critical and vulnerable state and supports need to now be watched very carefully, especially with daily MACD momentum slowing.” 

“Key near-term remains seen 3650/44 – key price/gap support and the 13-day exponential average. We need to see this hold to suggest the immediate risk can still stay higher with resistance seen at 3698 initially, above which is needed to clear the way for strength back to 3712, then 3720/25, which we look to cap at first. Above in due course though should see what we look to be a tougher test of a cluster of Fibonacci projection levels in the 3765/85 band.” 

“A close below 3644 though would suggest a more concerted correction lower is underway with support then seen next at 3625/22, then the 3594/78 key price gap from late November.”