Sparse Eco Calendar  Drives Greenback Consolidation

The post-payrolls lull in economic data is upon us, though the knock-on effects of the better than expected headline reading from Friday are still being felt around the globe, with major equity indices well in the green to begin the new trading week.   The Nikkei saw follow-through buying after the strong rally on Wall Street from the end of last week, despite the fact the Yen traded with a bid-tone throughout the Asian session, and the regional equity index finished higher by 1.1%.   The greenback is in consolidation mode this Monday morning, with USDJPY leading the charge as it pulled away from the 110 handle after President Abe recognized the higher energy prices as a consequence of the weak Yen is hurting consumers, and the government will take measures as a result.   While still vague in regards to what the government’s actions would be, the realization the weak Yen is not a panacea for growth has been the catalyst for the USDJPY retracement from somewhat over-stretched levels, and has lead the broader pull-back in the DXY.

Also managing to find some solid ground, the Euro is on the move higher against the big dollar, with EURUSD back into the mid-1.25s.   The rebound this morning is connected to the consolidative price action in the greenback, as economic reports did not signal any reason for market participants to increase exposure to the common-currency.   German factory orders collapsed by 5.7% over the month of August, far outpacing the forecasted decline of 2.5%, and erasing the 4.9% increase registered in July, raising concern industrial production figures could also follow suit with a similar decline.   Though the Euro is bouncing today, the strength and magnitude of the bounce could be shallow considering details around the ECB’s ABS program are still vague, along with the potential for a slowdown in Germany to raise the prospects of outright QE.

Heading into the North American open, equity futures are poised to continue Friday’s optimistic price action, signaling a green open is in the cards.   The commodity complex has managed to generate a bid-tone ahead of the opening bell, with both hydrocarbons and copper making a comeback which has helped the likes of the Aussie and Loonie.   USDCAD is giving back some of  Friday’s gains after the one-two punch of sluggish export numbers and strong US employment knocked the Loonie lower, though the pair has found support this morning at the 1.12 handle, needing some supportive Canadian data to drive the pair any further south.   While the economic calendar is fairly sparse today, the Ivey PMI survey is due out at 10:00 EST, with expectations the report will show purchasing manager activity in Canada expanded for the third month in a row.  Though the Ivey PMI isn’t usually a game-changer for price action in USDCAD, given the already stretched position in the pair, a decent PMI number could force the bulls to lighten their precarious load.

Further reading:

5 Most Predictable Currency Pairs- Q4 2014

Staying bullish on USD against EUR and GBP – Elliott Wave Analysis