In the run-up to the June 23 Brexit referendum, newspaper polls, telephone polls, and Internet polls are playing second fiddle to spread betting sites which offer greater accuracy.
Economists follow the money to determine likely outcome of Brexit vote
The historic Brexit vote on June 23, 2016 could have far-reaching implications for the UK economy, the EU as a power bloc, and the world at large. The media hype around the Brexit vote is causing all sorts of volatility and anxiety in the markets. This is evident in currency markets where the GBP has been fluctuating wildly in 2016, recently stabilizing owing to polls indicating that the likely outcome will be to remain part of the EU. However, a surprising development has taken place among economists, analysts and speculators and it comes in the form of spread betting data. While the reliability of newspaper, online and telephone polling has been called into question there appears to be widespread consensus among analysts that spread betting data is far more reliable. Leading online trading sites provide the best possible sentiment among those who are invested in the economics and the politics of the Brexit conundrum.
Top online trading platforms offering their insights by way of spread betting numbers make it relatively easy for traders to place their wagers on the remain or leave options. Spread betting has fast become one of the most influential economic indicators of sentiment in the United Kingdom, surpassing many conventional methods as a reliable economic tool to gauge public opinion. All manner of economic variables are brought into play including the following:
- The Brexit vote leave percentage
- The Brexit vote remain percentage
- The Brexit turnout percentage
- The Brexit vote according to Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and England
These are but a few of the spread betting options provided to punters and they provide a useful means of ascertaining the mood of the moment. Spread betting data is fluid, and up-to-date. The leading analysts at top spread betting sites have indicated that traders need to be aware of multiple factors when placing wagers on the remain campaign or the leave campaign. These factors include the impact of a Brexit on the GBP, the influence of the former London mayor Boris Johnson, the FTSE 100 index and the FTSE 250 index, the economic costs of a Brexit, and the likelihood of a Brexit occurring according to trading sites, national polls etc. Naturally, this information requires a thorough technical and fundamental analysis, and much of it remains conjecture.
Currency Markets Hard Hit by Brexit Fears
It is an irrefutable fact that the Brexit has placed the currency markets in a highly volatile state and that has resulted in the GBP trading at less than its optimal range against the greenback and other currencies for the year to date. Recently, the last poll indicated that there is a widening gap between those wanting to remain part of the EU and those wanting to break from the EU. This gave upwards momentum to the GBP which has since rallied against a basket of currencies. In terms of companies listed on the FTSE 100 index and the FTSE 250 index, a Brexit would invariably lead to heavy reliance on a stronger euro as the pound would weaken. Fortunately, FTSE 100 index companies derive as much as 70% of their income from the EU and other countries outside of the UK. This means that if the GBP weakens, the value of revenues generated outside of the UK will be worth more in sterling. Companies listed on the FTSE 250 index generate approximately 50% of their revenue outside of the UK and will likely be more hurt by a Brexit. These are but a few of the realities that analysts are stressing ahead of the Brexit vote.
Author Bio: Brett Chatz is a graduate of the University of South Africa, and holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree, with Economics and Strategic management as his major subjects. Nowadays Brett contributes from his vast expertise for the globally renowned spread betting company –InterTrader.