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China’s annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth likely slowed to 5.7% in the July-August period from 6.2% in the second quarter, according to Standard Chartered China’s nowcasting model.  

Standard Chartered’s chart, however, shows the activity likely improved modestly in September.  

Key points

Industrial production growth averaged only 4.6% y/y in July and August (5.6% for Q2)

Retail sales growth dragged down by the normalisation of car sales

Fixed asset investment growth also slowed from Q2

Expect the contribution of net exports to GDP growth to decline in H2 of 2019

Key quote

We expect counter-cyclical measures to shore up the economy, with a focus on accelerating rural consumer spending, old town renovation, and construction of logistics and information technology networks.